Ronald Acuña Jr. y sus proyecciones: ¿Cómo van hasta ahora?

¿Recuerdan las proyecciones de Ronald Acuña Jr. antes de iniciar la temporada? Esas que indican que iba a terminar la campaña con 43 cuadrangulares y que iba a ser un candidato al Jugador Más Valioso de la Liga Nacional. Justamente antes de iniciar la jornada del 8 de julio, es el momento indicado para revisarlas y ver cuán posibles son de convertirse en realidad.

La razón es que los Bravos ya disputaron 86 juegos en la campaña, por lo que superaron la mitad de su calendario regular. Ahora será mucho más sencillo identificar si el escenario que visualizaron algunos especialistas es viable o no.

Sin revisar a profundidad los números, Acuña va enrumbado a cumplir en lo que respecta a los jonrones. El pasado miércoles, ante los Piratas, soltó un vuelacerca solitario de 444 pies, el cuadrangular número 24 de la temporada del jardinero de 23 años.

Con ese estacazo, se convirtió en el primer jugador de los Bravos en alcanzar este total de jonrones en los primeros 85 juegos del equipo desde que Andruw Jones conectó 27 jonrones en este lapso en 2005.

“No teníamos ningún tipo de producción ofensiva”, declaró a MLB el mánager de los Bravos Brian Snitker, quien estaba en peligro de que su equipo fuera barrido por los Piratas pero con el batazo de Ronald Acuña Jr. se energizó la ofensiva. “Creo que la historia hubiera sido muy diferente si eso no hubiera pasado. Con esa acción se marcó el tono y nos dejó en buena posición para ganar el encuentro”.

Al final del día, los Bravos se llevaron la victoria 11 por 1 ante los Piratas y Atlanta evitó un escenario desfavorable. Ser barridos por un conjunto como Pittsburgh no proyectaba una buena imagen de cara al receso de mitad de temporada, por lo que ese bambinazo del venezolano tendrá un significado especial para la organización.

“Es un jugador con habilidades especiales, declaró Freedie Freeman, inicialista del equipo. “Solo tiene 23 años. Parece mentira la facilidad que tiene para hacer algunas jugadas que a muchos de nosotros nos costaría demasiado”.

¿Qué dicen las proyecciones actuales?

Anualmente son numerosos los especialistas que intentan encontrar las proyecciones de los beisbolistas, pero ninguno es tan afamado como el sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS).

Pero, ¿qué es el ZiPS? Es un sistema que desarrolló Dan Szymborski para Fangraphs en el que utiliza el crecimiento y el declive estadístico de los peloteros para encontrar tendencias. De esta forma, genera un escenario factible para la próxima campaña. Ese mismo programada aseguró en marzo que Ronald Acuña Jr. iba a conectar 43 jonrones en 2021.

“Acuña es una superestrella, y uno tiene que recordar que la mejor comparación de su cohorte es el joven y dinámico José Canseco, no el lento toletero que este último llegó al final de su carrera”, se puede leer en el reporte de Fangraphs. “En cierto modo, pareciera que puede pegar 40 cuadrangulares y robar 40 bases”.

Cuando los Bravos ya superaron el ecuador del calendario regular, Ronald Acuña Jr. terminaría con 45 cuadrangulares si logra mantener su ritmo actual. Es una cifra que incluso superaría las estimaciones iniciales, sin embargo, están lo suficientemente cercanas para que mantengan la credibilidad actual.

ZiPS también tenía al criollo con 33 bases robadas, por lo que se quedaría corto en llegar al 40-40. Además, bateará para .282, con OPS de .958, lo que redondeará una de las actuaciones más importantes para los beisbolistas venezolanos. En este momento, Ronald Acuña Jr. tiene average de .281 con OPS de .985.

“Está haciendo un estupendo trabajo en el campo. Parece que debo buscar un nuevo elogio todos los días, porque en cada encuentro hace algo diferente. Si no conecta un batazo, hace una gran jugada en los jardines o con una carrera por las bases. Pocos peloteros tienen las condiciones de este joven”, dijo Brian Snitker, mánager de Atlanta.

Ronald Acuña Jr. es un todoterreno

¿Qué podrían decir en los Bravos sobre Ronald Acuña Jr. que no sea repetitivo? Que es de los mejores jugadores de la actualidad, hasta el cansancio lo comentaron. Afirmar que su talento es generacional también lo dijeron y hasta que está encaminado a ser una leyenda se atrevieron a asegurar.

Pero luego de una actuación tan completa como antes los Piratas, los peloteros en Atlanta tuvieron que adentrarse en un libro de elogios para encontrar algo. Después de todo, no se podía dejar pasar ese desempeño, incluso aunque haya sido una derrota.

“Por eso te digo. Ronald tiene un talento especial”, afirmó Freddie Freeman, primera base de los Bravos. “Solo tiene 23 años de edad. Ya lo he visto por mucho tiempo y es realmente divertido. Todo lo que hace en el campo es bien ejecutado”.

Pareciera que solo las lesiones podrán detenerlo. Acuña se ha perdido algunos encuentros por molestias en el tobillo y la espalda, sin embargo, todo indica que cerrará con números bastante parecidos a esos que invitaron a pensar en una campaña histórica.

No voy a mentir, me encanta batear jonrones”, dijo Acuña a través de un intérprete. “Siempre se siente bien pegar jonrones. Ese, pensé, fue uno de los más duros que he golpeado. Así es como se sintió“.

De nuevo, Freeman lo adelantó hace un tiempo. Confesó que el patrullero llegó enfocado y en condiciones para tener una zafra digna de recordar en las Grandes Ligas, por lo que toda proyección o aspiración que tuviera algún aficionado se quedará corta a los números que dejará cuando caiga el telón de la campaña de 2021.

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