Cuidar las rayas dejó de ser un dogma

Crecimos en el beisbol leyendo y escuchando que en los innings finales de encuentros apretados el antesalista debe fundirse con la línea de fair para combatir los extrabases. Este versículo de las sagradas escrituras nos pareció siempre un mandato de sentido común hasta que llegaron los nuevos aires cuestionadores que aplican la duda metódica a toda verdad revelada.    

Cuidar la raya es uno de varios dogmas que están siendo refutados por la evidencia estadística, como se evidenció este lunes en el choque entre Cardenales de Lara y Navegantes del Magallanes.  

Esa noche, en el estadio José Bernardo Pérez de Valencia, Magallanes ganaba 4-0 a Lara en la apertura del noveno. Entró a lanzar Bruce Rondón, proclamado ese mismo día como Cerrador del Año en la temporada 2021-2022 de la Liga Venezolana de Beisbol Profesional. Solo que aquel no sería su día. Cardenales le llenó las almohadillas con un solo out en la pizarra y Alí Castillo aguardaba en el plato.

Ese es el tipo de circunstancias en las cuales suele jugarse bajo el lema: “no doble”, por cuanto el extrabase provoca un daño mayor que el sencillo. El antesalista del Magallanes Alberto González se plantó cerca de la raya, pero no tan próximo como suele estarse cuando se la está “cuidando”. Y justo por el espacio entre González y la línea fronteriza pasó el tubey barrebases de Castillo que puso el score 4-3 con el empate para Cardenales en posición de anotar. Castillo también anotaría con sencillo de Juniel Querecuto contra un asombrosamente infectivo Rondón y el combate se niveló a cuatro, La visita fabricaría tres más en el décimo para arrebatarle a Magallanes un triunfo que ya daba por sentado.  

https://www.instagram.com/p/CYUKI5PlfIM/

¿Falló el mánager Wilfredo Romero al no seguir el libreto de cuidar la raya? La respuesta es: no necesariamente.

En las Grandes Ligas, ineludible patrón de referencia para cualquier discusión sobre pelota en el orbe, esta norma no escrita ha dejado de observarse a rajatabla. “En las mayores no se cuida la raya porque la tasa de batazos que pasan por ahí es menor al 1%”, apunta Omar López, técnico venezolano en el Big Show. López es coach de tercera de los Astros de Houston, uno de los equipos más efectivos a la hora de posicionar a su defensa para elevar las probabilidades de out. “Solo se cuida la raya si tienes datos que demuestren que el tipo batea por ahí. Así lo hicimos en Houston y fuimos la defensa que más previno carreras usando el shift, porque colocábamos bien a los defensores”.

“Es verdad que no podemos comparar Grandes Ligas con Venezuela”, prosigue López. “En MLB los pitchers están mejor preparados, tienen mejor localización y ejecutan sus lanzamientos en coordinación con el alineamiento que asume la defensa. En Venezuela (a falta de información estadística concluyente y con serpentineros menos precisos, inciso nuestro) debes apelar a la intuición, a lo que estás viendo. Yo, en casa, ganando por cuatro y con un out, NO CUIDO LA RAYA”.

“¿Qué puede hacerme cambiar de opinión? La forma como se produzca el tráfico en las bases”, refiere Omar López. “Si veo que el pitcher está dejando los envíos en el medio, si el catcher me advierte que el hombre no tiene nada en la bola, tengo dos opciones: una es darle el voto de confianza y mover a mi defensa hacia su lado derecho. La otra alternativa es cambiar al lanzador y traer otro que venga a apagar el fuego. Pero como home club, con bases llenas y un out, no cuido la raya. Con cero outs, sí la cuidaría. Con un out, y ganando por cuatro, me la juego con la opción del dobleplay y si me dan por la raya todavía gano por una y soy home club”.

El razonamiento de López es muy similar al que aplicó Romero el lunes en Valencia. “Cuidar la raya en esa situación era jugar un beisbol timorato”, mencionó un miembro del cuerpo técnico filibustero (el término usado no fue timorato, pero hay niños presentes). “Ganando por cuatro, con un out y bases llenas, era preferible buscar el dobleplay contra un Alí Castillo que jamás batea por ahí. Él siempre busca irse del medio hacia la derecha. Y no era que Tico estaba totalmente alejado. Cuidar la raya no implica pararse sobre ella. Vale también estar a un solo paso, aunque hay mánagers, como Bruce Bochy, que sí mandan al antesalista a ponerse arriba de la línea. En todo caso, nos basamos en la tendencia de Castillo como bateador”.

“¿Con Alí Castillo? ¡Menos que menos hay que cuidar la raya!”, exclama López desde el conocimiento que le da haberlo enfrentado en múltiples ocasiones mientras dirigía en la LVBP.   

¿Significa esto que ahora es una aberración cuidar la raya en los innings finales? Claro que no. Lo que queremos decir es que la estrategia puede variar en función de las características del oponente. Existen otros esquemas para resolver escollos como ese sobre el cual estamos escribiendo. ¿Queremos decir con esto que las decisiones de los mánagers son incuestionables? Tampoco. De hecho, en la gerencia del Magallanes hay quienes opinan que Romero debió mandar a cuidar la raya. El asunto es que, detrás de esta decisión, hay un razonamiento basado en tendencias. Y las tendencias lo son todo en el beisbol de nuestros días.   

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