Miguel Cabrera: ¿el último de su especie?

Si llegara a perpetuarse la actual tendencia a la baja de los promedios en Grandes Ligas, la raza de los tres mil hits corre grave peligro de extinción. Tanto que Miguel Cabrera pudiera ser el último ejemplar de su especie.  

Cabe formularse la hipótesis por cuanto la merma de los averages en las mayores es causada por una disminución sostenida en la producción de inatrapables. Según el portal Baseball Reference, en 2021 se están conectando ocho incogibles por cada nueve innings, contra 8,4 en el encogido calendario de 2020 y 8,7 en 2019. Hace cinco años caían 8,8 cohetes a terreno baldío; y hace quince, 9,4. El tercio inicial de este certamen marca la proporción más baja de indiscutibles por cada nueve vueltas desde los 7,9 de 1968, bautizado como el Año del Pitcher.

Tal como van las cosas, cada hit será una gesta. Y tres millares, una utopía. Por eso existe la posibilidad de que Cabrera sea el último cofrade de los tres mil.  

Parece inexorable que el slugger de los Tigres de Detroit obtenga su membresía en la logia, sea en 2021, en 2022 o, en el peor de los escenarios, en 2023. La revitalización que ha experimentado recientemente (.333 de promedio desde hace una semana, .313 desde hace una quincena) lo aproximó a la meta. El toletero derecho nacido en abril de 1983 coleccionaba hasta la jornada del miércoles 2.891 incontenibles, a 109 del objetivo. A ese ritmo finalizará 2021 con 84 para sumar 2.975, a 25 de la Tierra Prometida. Pisaría Canaán a principios de 2002.

Y tras sus pasos, el desierto del Sinaí.

Vamos a asomarnos al listado de hiteadores para que vean cómo los que siguen a Miguel Cabrera pudieran quedarse sin oxígeno de camino a la cima.  

Ca-nó

Después de los 2.891 hits de Miguel Cabrera vienen los 2.624 del camarero dominicano Robinson Canó, quien tomará su próximo turno bajo la Gran Carpa en 2022, pues purga una larga suspensión por reincidir en el uso de sustancias prohibidas.

Cuando Canó regrese del ostracismo tendrá 39 años de edad y le faltarán 376 imparables para los tres millares. Supongamos que en cada una de las dos temporadas que le quedan bajo protección contractual con los Mets de Nueva York suelta 150 incogibles, proyecto ambicioso para un cuarentón que estará retornando de una prolongada inactividad y aterrizará sobre unas ligas mayores donde la cantidad de inalcanzables está en plena contracción. De lograrlo, todavía se quedaría corto por 76. La última vez que Canó traspuso la barrera de los 150 fue en 2017, cuando tenía 34 ruedas y el suelo de MLB era más fértil para los chocadores. Sería sorpresivo si lo logra.  

El siguiente en la línea de sucesión es el catcher boricua Yadier Molina, para quien los tres mil hits se antojan como una quimera. El receptor de los Cardenales de San Luis reúne 2.035 (le faltan casi mil) y cuenta 38 abriles. ¿Se lo imaginan despachando doscientos hits por temporada hasta los 43? Ni que le trasfundan plasma de Ty Cobb podrá cubrir esa distancia en el tiempo que le queda.


Lee también: Miguel Cabrera: así se gestó una carrera que terminará en la eternidad


Lo mismo aplica para Joey Votto (1.932 con 37 años y ya en decadencia); Nelson Cruz (1.819  con 40 años); Ryan Zimmerman (1.809 con 36 años y jugando a tiempo parcial); Evan Longoria (1.787 con 35 almanaques y promedio de 128 hits por campaña); Elvis Andrus (1.772 con 32 años, pero bateando .190 en las últimas dos zafras); Andrew McCutchen (1.752 con 34 y a perezoso paso de cien imparables por contienda desde 2016), Asdrúbal Cabrera (1.725 con 35 almanaques), Justin Upton (1.709 con 33) y Starlin Castro (1.677 con 31).

¿Astroboy saldrá al espacio exterior?

Hacemos un alto porque el siguiente en la lista es José Altuve, tricampeón bate de la Liga Americana.

En sus primeras siete temporadas, Altuve marcó parciales similares a los de Pete Rose (el rey del hit) a principios de su carrera. Las lesiones han ralentizado la zancada del intermedista de los Astros de Houston, pero cualquiera pudiera pensar que, con 31 años de edad recién cumplidos y su capacidad bateadora, pudiera ser el próximo socio con membresía en el club 3.000.

Tal vez, pero será una tarea ciclópea.

Altuve tenía (hasta la jornada del miércoles) 1.658 petardos, a 1.342 de los tres mil. Para aterrizar en esa comarca tendrá que golpear, en promedio, 170 hits en las próximas ocho campañas, hasta cumplir 39. Para que tengamos una idea del grado de dificultad de esta empresa: si Altuve mantuviera en los próximos ocho años su vigoroso paso de 2021 (proyecta una vendimia de 162 truenos) necesitaría mantenerse activo hasta los 40 para alcanzar el Nirvana.

Y volvemos al punto inicial: si la tendencia a la baja de los hits se prolonga en el tiempo, será supremamente difícil (más de lo que ya es) disparar 170 cohetes por campaña, sin contar que deberá prevalecer sobre el desgaste natural causado por el tiempo. Para llegar a tres mil, Altuve tendrá que derrotar al envejecimiento, al espíritu de la época y a las lesiones que lo han sitiado en el pasado reciente.

No obstante, hablamos de Altuve, el hombre de las dificultades, un pelotero acostumbrado a asombrarnos y a enjaular aves de mal agüero.  

Trucha contra la corriente

También hay que detenerse en Mike Trout, otro que se postula como futuro integrante de la Orden de la Jarretera. Sin haber cumplido 30 años de edad, Trout (trucha en inglés) acopia 1.419 imparables en su alacena. Tiene que adicionar otros 1.581 para los tres mil y para hacerlo le quedan esta y otras nueve temporadas de contrato garantizado con los Angelinos de Los Ángeles. En 2021 no podrá avanzar mucho, pues pudiera perderse hasta dos meses de acción por una distención en la pantorrilla derecha. Si entre 2022 y 2030 promedia 160 hits, habrá otro signatario de tres mil hits.

Pero para hacer eso, un Trout que nadará río arriba por la treintena y para colmo en época de bajo caudal para los hiteadores deberá conservar el ritmo que ha exhibido durante la primera década de su recorrido por MLB, un decenio que ha proclamado a este jardinero como el mejor pelotero del planeta. Entre 2012 y 2019 (sus ocho contiendas de al menos 110 juegos) su tasa de hit por temporada fue 162. Pudiera ser mayor de no ser porque ha sacrificado producción de inalcanzables en aras de la disciplina en el plato. Mientras Trout detonaba 160 balines por torneo tomaba 79 bases por bolas para un porcentaje de embasado vitalicio de .419. Extraordinario, mas poco aconsejable para la empresa de los tres mil. Por esa misma razón, Bonds no derribó los muros de Jericó.     

¿Vendrá de Aruba o Florida?

De los 79 nombres que vienen detrás de Trout en el listado de más irrefrenables entre peloteros activos muy pocos cuentan, sea por su edad o por sus características. Ni siquiera estrellas como Bryce Harper, que nunca se ha distinguido por su elevada generación de incogibles.

Por ahí está el floridano Manny Machado con 1.304 hits, a 1.696 de la bandera a cuadros con casi 29 años de edad. Entre 2013 y 2019 el antesalista de los Padres de San Diego ofrendó 164 hits por temporada. Aún si preserva esa cadencia diez años más, hasta los 39 (sobrepasando el deterioro inexorable y atravesando las líneas Maginot que construyen los equipos hoy en día para impedir que los batazos pasen), todavía se quedaría corto por más de media centena. Deberá adentrarse en los cuarenta para poder coronar en un era cuando los peloteros entran más rápido en obsolescencia. “Dejad que los niños vengan a mí”, dice una industria que dejó de honrar a los mayores, con contadísimas excepciones.  

Hay que seguir de cerca al torpedero arubeño de los Medias Rojas de Boston Xander Bogaerts, quien sin haber soplado las velas de los 29 ya atesora 1.143 conexiones fuera del alcanza de los guantes. Entre 2014 y 2019 mostró una marcha frenética de 169 inatajables por campeonato y las proyecciones le dan para cerrar 2021 con 198 y escalar hasta 1.281.

Para poner la pica en Flandes Bogaerts necesita replicar, en las siguientes once temporadas y hasta que cumpla 40, al Bogaerts que hemos admirado entre los 21 y los 29. Requeriría descargar 165 hits por campaña entre 2022 y 2031. No podría desmayar. Cualquier visita al quirófano, cualquier flaqueza, cualquier estrago que causen  los años al consumirse lo dejarían fuera de la cofradía. Y no olvidemos que, si las cosas siguen como van, será cada vez más difícil posar una pelota en tierra de nadie. Hasta para él.

¿Y los muchachos?

¿Qué hay de los prodigios que vienen levantándose? ¿No son Ronald Acuña, Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto y compañía potenciales fabricantes de tres mil hits? No contaría contar mucho con ellos. Pertenecen a una generación que trae incorporado el chip del jonrón. Ellos no se detienen en menudencias. Lo de estos portentos, porque tienen con qué, es hacer swing grande, sin temor a fallar, sin machucar la bola sobre los infielders, sin buscar los huecos en el cuadro.

Tal vez el que escape a ese molde sea Soto, campeón bate de la Liga Nacional en 2020.  Puede que Tatis, quien promedia .301 desde su llegada a MLB. Pero si el comportamiento actual de las Grandes Ligas se consolida, estos chicos no andarán muy preocupados por tener campañas de doscientos hits.

Como doliente de la vieja guardia, este columnista desearía que volvieran los hits. Y diera la impresión de que los administradores de la Gran Carpa también los quieren de vuelta. El experimento de regular las formaciones defensivas personalizadas en AA nos indica que a la industria le da caspa este beisbol estático de jonrones, ponches y outs a granel.

Decía recientemente Freddy Chersia, narrador de beisbol en el canal IVC, que esta tendencia a batear para tan bajo promedio es insostenible y será revertida. En ese escenario, varios de los artilleros que hemos enumerado seguirán la senda de Cabrera y ensancharán la militancia de los tres mil hits. Mas si se asienta esta pelota de menos de .240 de promedio, entonces es muy posible que Miguel Cabrera cierre la taquilla, como Randy Johnson le pasó el cerrojo al salón de las trescientas victorias. La extinción de los ganadores de 300 es irreversible. La etnia de los tres mil hits tal vez logre extender su supervivencia.    

Columna publicada en mayo de 2021.

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