El Covid-19 acabó con los “infiernos” locales en el fútbol europeo

Pese a todas las críticas y a los llamados de conciencia, el fútbol volvió. Con medidas sanitarias importantes y otras incomprensibles, como no abrazarse al celebrar un gol, pero en cualquier otra jugada hay contacto físico. Lo cierto es que el regreso del balompié en Europa trajo una inquietante teoría. Ganar de local ahora es más complicado. ¿El Covid-19 es culpable?

La localía es un factor preponderante en cualquier deporte, pero en el fútbol europeo es más que clave. Estadios casi siempre llenos, fanaticadas rabiosas que presionan al rival y nunca dejan de cantar; pero la coyuntura que trajo consigo el Covid-19 obligó a que la humanidad experimentara la distancia social.

En algunos estadios que eran una especie de “infierno”, ahora lucen alegres rostros de cartón en los asientos. En los parlantes se escucha bulla, pero quienes la producen de forma natural están detrás de un televisor.

Sin la presión de jugar de visitante ante el público rival, las estadísticas han arrojado que los de afuera se han envalentonado.

Según cifras de @PlanDataFutbol, las victorias de los visitantes se han incrementado en la era post Covid-19, aunque la enfermedad aún sigue azotando al mundo.

La Bundesliga, donde el local extraña más a su público

Las imágenes del Signal Iduna Park de Dortmund aturden. El ángulo de sus gradas da la impresión de que se le van encima a los equipos en cancha. Pero con los asientos vacíos, ese plus ya no existe.

Antes del parón por el Covid, en 224 partidos, el 43% de los equipos locales se llevó la victoria. La visita solo pudo llevarse el botín completo el 35% de esos juegos. El cambio radical llegó luego del reinicio, 46% de los visitantes sumaron de tres, mientras que solo el 31% de los locales lo hicieron.

“Por primera vez en la historia del fútbol a veces parece que es más fácil jugar en la carretera”, dijo Lukas Keppler, director gerente de la firma de datos y análisis Impect, al New York Times.

El medio estadounidense también revela otra cifra llamativa. Según los analistas de Gracenote, los equipos locales en Alemania anotan 1.74 goles por partido, esa cifra ha disminuido a 1.43.

El Covid-19 también afectó a los locales en Europa

El caso alemán es el más llamativo, pero se repite en las otras grandes de Europa en una menor magnitud. En la Premier, equipos como el Manchester United volvieron a todo tren, inclusive a pelear Champions, mientras que Liverpool, que era virtual campeón, lo sostuvo.

Antes de la pandemia, el 45% de los locales lograron ganar, esa cifra se mantuvo al regresar. Pero los visitantes se llevaron la victoria el 38% de las veces, contrastando con el 30% de antes; esto significa que se redujeron los empates en beneficio de la visita.

El regreso a la acción luego del parón por el Covid trajo varias sorpresas en las estadísticas que antes dominaban a placer los locales / @PlanDataFutbol

En España la tendencia es igual. El resurgir del Real Madrid y el parpadeo del Barcelona ha concentrado la atención de todos. Los merengues tienen cuatro puntos por encima en la punta y van tomando distancia, mientras los visitantes aprovechan los estadios vacíos de los rivales.

Antes de la cuarentena, en un país que llegó a sumar mil muertos diarios, casi la mitad de los locales ganaban (48%). Después de volver a la acción, luego de la Bundesliga, los huéspedes se volvieron más hostiles, dejando a los dueños de casa con un 42% de victorias, mientras que ellos regresan a casa con los tres puntos el 28% de las oportunidades cuando antes era el 24%.

Sin una vacuna a la vista, el tema del distanciamiento social parece extenderse. Los deportes profesionales no escapan a eso por lo que tendrán que asumir que las gradas continuarán vacías. ¿Por cuánto tiempo? Es imposible saberlo. Mientras, esa famosa fórmula de “sumar de local y arañar puntos de visita” podría cambiar.

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